30 July 2026

Prison Overcrowding ~ Prime Minister orders review of the 33% scheme in the Sentencing Act 2026

The prisons of England and Wales are overcrowded.  

Prison "useable operational capacity" for England and Wales is published by HM Government - Prison population: monthly prison figures 2026 - GOV.UK. The data also includes the numbers of serving prisoners.  Further information is available at Prisons data - Justice Data.

The following shows the prison population by offence group as it stood at 31 March 2026. 

Following the 2024 general election, the incoming Labour government introduced an emergency measure - known as SDS40 - which released around 50,000 prisoners after they had served 40% of the sentence imposed by the courts. This was widely criticised as a measure lacking a structured rehabilitation. 

The SENTENCING ACT 2026 replaced SDS40 with a permanent system tying earlier release to demonstrable engagement with purposeful activity, creating incentives for rehabilitation while managing capacity pressures - see  Sentencing Act 2026: The 33% Early Release Earned Progression Model Explained - HM Prison.

The 2026 Act made sentencing reforms in line with the recommendations of the Independent Sentencing Review (ISR) - (May 2025 - see Independent Sentencing Review: Final report - GOV.UK ). The Act therefore went beyond being just a new scheme to ease prison overcrowding. It was a significant change to sentencing law.

Under the 2026 Act, many prisoners become eligible for release sooner than previously. For example, at 33% instead of 50% but this is not automatic. The new framework is based on the principle that prisoners must earn their progression toward early release by actively engaging with work, education, training and their sentence plan. 

Much of the 2026 Act is subject to commencement orders - Sentencing Act 2026 section 49 and see The Sentencing Act 2026 (Commencement No. 4) Regulations 2026

The Prime Minister ordered that the early prison release scheme be paused pending a review - Burnham pauses early prison release scheme - BBC News.  This came about after criticism of the scheme from survivors and victims' families, including the widow of PC Andrew Harper who described the possibility of his killers' early release as "deplorable".

The new Justice Secretary Alex Norris said the pause aimed to "give victims and survivors certainty" and the government wanted to make sure it got "the implementation of this policy right".


Addressing the overcrowding is one matter but there is a need to also address the reasons why so many individuals end up in prison even for non-violent / non-sexual offences. Reasons for this include incessant demands in the media for various offenders to be "locked up" for longer. There is also political competition between political parties as to who is the toughest on crime. Parliament enacts many additional imprisonable offences each year.

The primary purpose of imprisonment should be public protection.  I recommend a reading of an article by former Justice Secretary David Gauke -  Britain is in denial on the prisons crisis - by David Gauke

4 August 2026About 1,000 fewer prisoners to get early release as Burnham tightens rules | Prisons and probation | The Guardian. The article notes that - "About 1,000 fewer prisoners will be released early after Andy Burnham’s intervention to exclude those convicted of rape, serious child sexual offences and grooming from the scheme.

The justice secretary, Alex Norris, said 5,000 prisoners would be released over 10 months from October in England and Wales, down from the government’s original plan for 6,000 from September."

A problem with this change is that violent offenders continue to benefit from the earlier release provisions and they include the individuals response for the death of PC Harper. This is highly unlikely to satisfy public opinion and could bring the criminal justice system into disrepute. 



11 August 2026:

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