This post contains an overview of the Brexit process, the current mess over the Northern Ireland Protocol, a brief look at some views as to how the British economy is performing, and what the future appears to hold.
Starmer seeks to put "the divisions of the past behind us" and offers a plan that he claims "seizes on the challenges and opportunities of the future." But will it do that or is it just tinkering at the edges of the post-Brexit issues?
Brexit:
23 June 2022 marked the sixth anniversary of the UK's referendum
on Brexit with its seemingly straightforward "remain or leave" question. Taking the UK as a whole, the referendum received a narrow vote (approx 52% to 48%) in favour of leave but, significantly, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU.A long period of political turmoil followed.
The details of HOW Brexit would be implemented were left to the UK government to negotiate with the EU.
Would Brexit take a "soft" form with the UK staying in the Single Market and Customs Union or would it be a "hard" Brexit.
The matter was put beyond doubt in January 2017 by Prime Minister Theresa May in her Lancaster House speech. It would certainly not be a "soft" form of Brexit no matter how attractive that was to British business.
Eventually, a withdrawal agreement was reached in November 2019 and the UK left the EU on 31 January 2020 (albeit with a transition / implementation period to the end of 2020).
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement was signed as late as 30 December 2020. It applied provisionally from 1 January 2021 and entered into force on 1 May 2021.
Northern Ireland Protocol:
The Northern Ireland Protocol is an integral part of the Withdrawal Agreement. Under a Bill currently before Parliament, the government is seeking powers to disapply the protocol in domestic law even though it is binding on the UK in international law - Law and Lawyers: Northern Ireland Protocol - a government Bill (obiterj.blogspot.com). The government's legal position - that the international law concept of "necessity" applies - has been largely ridiculed. One reason to reject the government's position is that Article 16 - (the mechanism in the protocol for resolving problems) - has not been formally invoked.
An excellent paper by Anton Spisak on the current situation with the Protocol was published on 27 June 2022 - Four reasons why the UK’s Northern Ireland Protocol bill is a mistake | Centre for European Reform (cer.eu)
The UK economy:
The coronavirus pandemic began in early 2020 and we may yet see a resurgence of the virus. Perhaps conveniently for government, the economic impact of the pandemic has mixed with the impact of Brexit making it difficult, perhaps impossible, to entirely disentangle the two. In addition, the Bank of England has highlighted problems arising from Russia's actions in Ukraine - Bank of England warns that economic outlook has ‘deteriorated materially’ | Bank of England | The Guardian
Writing for the Centre for European Reform, John Springford has attempted to examine the impact of Brexit on the EK economy - Britain needs to face up to the cost of Brexit | Centre for European Reform (cer.eu). Springford claims that his estimates of the cost of Brexit show that the UK economy is in serious trouble and that it may be difficult for politicians to avoid the issue for much longer.
A further look at the economy is at The Impact of Brexit in Six Charts: From Trade Slumps to a Weaker Pound – 1 July 2022 Byline Times
Also, Boris Johnson has left the UK economy in a parlous state | Economics | The Guardian
The future?
Politically, the "long and bumpy road" since 2016 has generated rival political camps and many still hope that Brexit will either be reversed one day or that, at the least, the worst will be eased by the UK rejoining the Single Market / Customs Union.
Both of those scenarios assume that rejoining the EU or its single market / customs union will be acceptable to the EU. As time passes and as regulatory divergence increases it is likely to become more uncertain whether any application by the UK would be received favourably. In any event, there is zero chance of the UK regaining the favourable terms it enjoyed as a full member.
The ruling Conservative Party will not countenance rejoining the single market / customs union and neither, it seems, will the Labour Party which, in reality, is the only viable alternative party of government.
The Labour Party position - at least as long as Sir Keir Starmer is leader - has been put beyond any doubt in a speech by Starmer to the Centre for European Reform. The full speech is HERE.
Starmer was crystal clear - "Under Labour, Britain will not go back into the EU. We will not be joining the single market. We will not be joining a customs union."
Starmer went on to indicate areas where a Labour government would seek to improve arrangements with the EU - "sort out the Northern Ireland Protocol", a new veterinary agreement, mutual recognition of qualifications ensuring services can compete, and strengthened security co-operation.
The UK's future, for good or ill, therefore lies outside the EU unless there is some major change of policy on the part of either of the main political parties (i.e. Conservative and Labour). That seems unlikely. The most one can now expect is some eventual move toward improving the Trade and Cooperation arrangements and, perhaps, there may yet be an agreed solution to the Northern Ireland Protocol with the government's Protocol Bill consigned to history.
Is Starmer mistaken given that joining the single market would be the obvious solution to many problems including the Northern Ireland Protocol issue. I think there is every chance that he is !
5 July 2022
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