On Wednesday 24 July, the Queen's first visitor will be the outgoing Prime Minister - Theresa May. Mr Johnson will then visit the palace to be formally appointed as Prime Minister.
During a lengthy campaign, Mr Johnson made clear that he plans to lead the UK out of the EU by 31 October 2019 - i.e. to "deliver Brexit." His stance has been that this will take place with or without a withdrawal agreement.
Appointment of Prime Minister:
In law, the Queen may
- under the Royal Prerogative - appoint whomsoever she pleases to be Prime Minister but constitutional convention requires that the appointment goes to the individual who can command a majority in the House of Commons.
When appointed, Mr Johnson will be the 14th Prime Minister of the Queen's reign. (Note: 14 individuals since the Queen's accession. Harold Wilson formed 2 governments from 1964 to 1970 and then from 1974 to 1976).
The office holds immense power including the right to appoint and dismiss Ministers of the Crown and control the Cabinet (i.e. decide the size of Cabinet, who attends meetings, the agenda etc). Mr Johnson's first task will be to form a government by making Ministerial appointments and up to 95 such appointees are entitled to sit and vote in the Commons. A number of Ministers in Theresa May's cabinet have indicated that they do not wish to serve under Mr Johnson.
The Ministerial
and Other Salaries Act 1975 sets out the maximum number of paid
ministerial posts. The maximum number is 109; this is broken
down by category.
The House of Commons Disqualification Act 1975
provides that not more than 95 holders of Ministerial offices may sit and vote
in the House of Commons at any one time. There is no equivalent legal
restraint on the number of Ministers in the Lords.
Thoughts on changing the Prime Minister:
A government is formed by the party with the most seats in the House of Commons and such a government can claim to have won a mandate from the electorate. During an election campaign, the performances of the Party Leaders and other prominent campaigners are (rightly) under severe scrutiny and their personalities undoubtedly influence voters and the result of the election. This raises the question of whether a change of PM ought to trigger a vote of confidence (VNC) in the House of Commons or even a requirement to hold a general election (GE).
Prime Ministers may depart for reasons such as death, illness, personal issues. They may also be brought down by loss of political support. Nonetheless, both the Conservative Party and the Labour Party have been able to change their leaders - and therefore the PM - without either a VNC or GE.
The present system is seen by some as acceptable given the possibility of a vote of no confidence. We know that a vote of no confidence in Her Majesty's government is a possibility under the Fixed-term (Parliaments) Act 2011. A vote held under the Act is capable of bringing about an early general election. However, there may be other opportunities for "no confidence" to be expressed without triggering the 2011 Act. On this see the article by the Institute for Government and also the discussion at -
14th Report - The Role of Parliament in the UK Constitution Interim Report The Status and Effect of Confidence Motions and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 | PDF version 14th Report - The Role of Parliament in the UK Constitution Interim Report The Status and Effect of Confidence Motions and the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 (
PDF )
HC 1813 | Published 11 December 2018 An argument in favour of a requirement to hold an election is that a change of Prime Minister provides an immediate opportunity to appoint a new Cabinet and to remove from post Ministers who are not favourable to the new PM. A new PM is therefore capable of taking the government in a very different direction to that argued for in the manifesto.
The new government formed by Boris Johnson is an example - BBC News - Prime Minister Boris Johnson: Who's in his Cabinet? As Professor Chris Grey writes on his Brexit blog that changes of Prime Minister have become progressively less legitimate as British politics has become more presidential.
"This time, there are three particular issues that make it different. It’s happening when there is not only a minority government but one embarking on a decided shift in policy and with a wholesale change in personnel. That shift in policy is an epochally defining one, pushing towards a no-deal Brexit that was voted for in neither an election nor a referendum. And the decision was made by party members, not by MPs.
..... we have a Prime Minister chosen by a tiny and highly unrepresentative fragment of the electorate to enact an extreme policy that has no democratic mandate whatsoever. It’s a perversion of democracy, and has, at best, only the most threadbare and procedural veneer of legitimacy."
See also the article by Martin Kettle - The Guardian 25 July - This is no normal transition of power. It's a hard Brexit coup. Kettle sees the change as a "political transition unlike any other.
"It is a massive rupture, not a seamless progression. Its outcome is dark-clouded in uncertainty. Any idea that the events of 24 July 2019 embody the same timeless magic of the peaceful passing of parliamentary power that constitutional experts like to celebrate is for the birds. For this is an unprecedented partisan seizure of power by the radical part of the Conservative party that seeks Brexit whatever the cost. It is a hard Brexit coup dressed up as politics as usual."
Uneasy lies the head that wears a crown:
In the present House of Commons, the Conservative Party has a slender hold on power and governs with support of Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) under a confidence and supply agreement. It cannot be confidently predicted that the agreement will not breakdown at some point even though the arrangement was intended to last until the end of the current Parliament in 2020.
The House of Commons has already expressed the view that it does not want a no-deal Brexit but the Commons has also repeatedly rejected the withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May. It remains to be seen how the new Prime Minister proceeds with this problem. It appears that Mr Johnson is likely to seek further talks with the EU.
For its part, the EU has insisted that the withdrawal agreement is not open for re-negotiation and is unlikely to alter that position unless, for some good reason, it becomes in the interests of the EU to do so. The Political Declaration is another matter and there is scope for further negotiations in that area. The EU Parliament's Brexit Steering Group is to meet on 24 July.
The Prime Minister's hold on office is therefore at significant risk and an early general election could be brought about under the provisions of the Fixed-term (Parliaments) Act 2011
Prorogation:
The possibility of proroguing ("closing down") Parliament in order to avoid its opposition to a no-deal Brexit has already been discussed on this blog. It ought not to happen but, as the law stands, cannot be entirely ruled out.
On 22 July, the Good Law Project announced that it is taking action in Scotland's Court of Session - which sits during August - with a view to preventing this form of prorogation. The action is for a “declarator” that the Prime Minister cannot lawfully advise the Queen to suspend Parliament. The petitioners will use the Wightman precedent – the case that established the UK can revoke Article 50 – and say the Court should state the law in advance of the Queen being asked to suspend Parliament.
For Wightman and others v Secretary of State for Exiting the EU see - Court of Justice EU Press release 10 December 2018 and the Court's Judgment.
Regardless of whether one welcomes Mr Johnson or joins with Scotland's First Minister (Nicola Sturgeon) in expressing profound concerns, the days ahead will have massive impact on the future of the UK. its economy and the well-being of the people.
Theresa May:
Her premiership commenced on 13 July 2016. I am not going to attempt to review her political legacy. Others, far better placed than myself, have already started to do that - e.g. LSE - The Brexit Prime Minister? Assessing Theresa May's legacy.
Links:
Wikpedia - Boris Johnson
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