Sunday, 31 March 2019

The week ahead ~ Further indicative votes

1st April - 2230 hrs.  Updated with results

On Friday 29 March the House of Commons rejected (344 to 286) the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement, the Joint Instrument and the Unilateral Declaration - (the documents are available HERE).  Under the EU Council Decision of 22 March this rejection has the effect of making Exit Day 12 April but it is open to the UK to seek a way forward.  A further extension of time may therefore arise.

On Wednesday 27 March the House rejected eight indicative vote proposals - previous post 27 March.  Only two of those "came close" to acceptance - a Customs Union (proposed by Kenneth Clarke QC MP but rejected 272 to 264) and a "Confirmatory Public Vote" (rejected 295 to 268).

The coming week
will see the House holding further indicative votes as it continues to seek a solution which is likely to be acceptable to a majority in the House.

The Order Paper for 1st April sets out the motion to be debated and eight proposals.  The Table below is a summary of the proposals.  The situation is liable to change and I will endeavour to update the Table as events unfold.

It is reported that the government may seek to bring the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement back to the House.




Brief Description

Notes / Links
Outcome
 A

Unilateral right of exit from the backstop - That this House agrees that the UK shall leave the EU on 22 May 2019 with the Withdrawal Agreement amended to allow the UK unilaterally to exit the Northern Ireland backstop.


Not selected by the Speaker
B

No deal exit in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement - That this House agrees that, in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement that can command the support of the House, the UK shall leave the EU on 12 April 2019 without a deal.


Not selected by the Speaker
C

Customs Union - That this House instructs the Government to: (1) ensure that any Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration negotiated with the EU must include, as a minimum, a commitment to negotiate a permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU; (2) enshrine this objective in primary legislation.

The words "commitment to negotiate" indicate that some form of new customs arrangements are being sought - i.e. different to the existing arrangements with the EU.

Euronews 29 March 2019 - Brexit: EU would allow permanent customs union if the UK wants it, says Barnier  - the EU would agree to put a permanent customs union in the political declarationshould the UK choose to ask for one.

The Conversation 30 January 2019 - Why Customs are central to solving the Irish Border impasse



Rejected
273 to 276 votes - majority 3.  Total votes 549
D
Common Market 2.0

A lengthy proposal which seeks to bring the UK into (a) EFTA (with a comprehensive customs arrangement with the EU); (b) the EFTA Pillar of the EEA; (c) have protocols relating to frictionless agri-food trade across the UK/EU border; (d) a comprehensive customs arrangement including a common external tariff

This motion also seeks to impose on the government a legally binding negotiating mandate

Rejected
261 to 282
votes - majority 21 - total votes 543.
E

Confirmatory Public Vote - That this House will not allow in this Parliament the implementation and ratification of any withdrawal agreement and any framework for the future relationship unless and until they have been approved by the people of the United Kingdom in a confirmatory public vote.


Rejected
280 to 292 votes - majority 12 - total votes 572.
F

Public Vote to Prevent a No Deal Brexit - That this House considers that it would be appropriate to commit to the holding of a public vote if it were necessary to prevent the United Kingdom leaving the European Union without a deal.


Not selected by the Speaker
G

Parliamentary Sovereignty – also a lengthy proposal which, if adopted, could lead to the House either accepting a no deal exit or requiring revocation.

If it is revocation then an inquiry  into the question whether a model of a future relationship with the European Union likely to be acceptable to the European Union is likely to have majority support in the United Kingdom.  That could, in turn, could lead to a further EU referendum.


Rejected 191 to 292 votes - majority 101 - total votes 393.
H

EFTA and EEA - calls on the Government to

(a) assert the UK’s existing rights and obligations as a signatory to the EEA Treaty

(b) indicate to the EU before 12 April that the UK intends to rejoin the European Free Trade Association

(c) agree with the EU a further short extension to the UK’s membership of the EU during which accession to the EFTA pillar can be concluded and

(d) negotiate with the EU additional protocols relating to the Northern Ireland border and agri-food trade.

Not selected by the Speaker

Addendum:  1st April 2019 - All 4 options were rejected.  The Cabinet to meet 2 April 2019 to consider the way forward.  For the debate see Hansard 1 April 2019.  Voting results are HERE and also for analysis of the voting see The Guardian 1 April


Additonal Notes and Links:


Customs Union

A trade agreement under which two or more countries do not put tariffs (taxes) on goods coming in from other countries in the union. The countries also decide to set the same tariff on goods entering from outside the union. The EU customs union includes EU member states and some small non-EU members and forbids members from negotiating trade agreements separately from the EU. Instead trade agreements are negotiated collectively.



Single Market

A system that enables goods, services, people and capital (money) to move between all 28 EU member states, as well as Iceland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Countries in the single market apply many common rules and standards. A UK company can sell its product (goods) in Portugal as easily as it can in Portsmouth, bring back the cash (capital), offer maintenance (services) and despatch a repair team (people). 


EFTA

An organisation made up of four countries: Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. They are allowed to trade freely with the single market in return for accepting its rules. They're not in the EU customs union and can negotiate trade deals with third-party countries such as China.

EFTA 

EEA

An area covering the 28 European Union countries plus Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, which enables those three countries to be part of the EU's single market. They abide by the rules of the EU single market and its freedom of movement of people, goods, services and money. But Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland are not part of the EU's Common Agricultural or Fisheries policies and they do not have a common foreign and security policy.

WTO

If countries don't have free-trade agreements, they usually trade with each other under rules set by the World Trade Organization. Each country sets tariffs - or taxes - on goods entering. For example, cars passing from non-EU countries to the EU are charged at 10% of their value. But tariffs on some agricultural products are much higher - dairy averages more than 35%. If the UK chooses to put no tariffs on goods from the EU, it must also have no tariffs on goods from every WTO member.
Common Market 2.0

http://www.stephenkinnock.co.uk/common_market_2_0

In a Nutshell:


Professor K A Armstrong – Professor of European law and Fellow of Sidney Sussex College, University of Cambridge - Twitter - 31 March 2019.

A Single Market entails the four freedoms including services but also movement of workers as a legal right. Restrictions on free movement are restrictions on a fundamental freedom and so very narrowly defined.

Membership of EFTA and access to the Single Market via EEA Agreement would not include a customs union. It would allow greater autonomy for an independent trade policy but then entail rules of origin and frontier checks as goods move into the EU customs union.

A No Deal Brexit would lead to trade on WTO terms and imposition of tariffs. Precisely because this is unattractive we get the large number of free trade agreement between major economies. As a result even WTO members don’t trade on default rules of WTO but based on agreements.

Combining a customs union and a Single Market would avoid hard border in Ireland. It would be the best economic option for U.K. . But it’s what U.K. already has as a Member State. If it’s what we want, why leave?


and on Twitter see this Explainer thread by Christopher James.

No comments:

Post a Comment