On Friday 29 March the House of Commons rejected (344 to 286) the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement, the Joint Instrument and the Unilateral Declaration - (the documents are available HERE). Under the EU Council Decision of 22 March this rejection has the effect of making Exit Day 12 April but it is open to the UK to seek a way forward. A further extension of time may therefore arise.
On Wednesday 27 March the House rejected eight indicative vote proposals - previous post 27 March. Only two of those "came close" to acceptance - a Customs Union (proposed by Kenneth Clarke QC MP but rejected 272 to 264) and a "Confirmatory Public Vote" (rejected 295 to 268).
The coming week
will see the House holding further indicative votes as it continues to seek a solution which is likely to be acceptable to a majority in the House.
The Order Paper for 1st April sets out the motion to be debated and eight proposals. The Table below is a summary of the proposals. The situation is liable to change and I will endeavour to update the Table as events unfold.
It is reported that the government may seek to bring the negotiated Withdrawal Agreement back to the House.
Brief Description
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Notes / Links
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Outcome
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A
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Unilateral right of exit from the backstop - That this House agrees
that the UK shall leave the EU on 22 May 2019 with the Withdrawal Agreement
amended to allow the UK unilaterally to exit the Northern Ireland backstop.
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Not selected by the Speaker
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B
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No deal exit in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement - That this
House agrees that, in the absence of a Withdrawal Agreement that can command
the support of the House, the UK shall leave the EU on 12 April 2019 without
a deal.
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Not selected by the Speaker
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C
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Customs Union - That this House instructs the Government to: (1)
ensure that any Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration negotiated
with the EU must include, as a minimum, a commitment to negotiate a permanent
and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU; (2) enshrine this
objective in primary legislation.
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The words "commitment to negotiate" indicate that some form of new customs arrangements are being sought - i.e. different to the existing arrangements with the EU.
Euronews 29 March 2019 - Brexit: EU would allow permanent customs union if the UK wants it, says Barnier - the EU would agree to put a permanent customs union in the political declarationshould the UK choose to ask for one. The Conversation 30 January 2019 - Why Customs are central to solving the Irish Border impasse |
Rejected
273 to 276 votes - majority 3. Total votes 549 |
D
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Common Market 2.0
A lengthy proposal which seeks to bring the UK into
(a) EFTA (with a comprehensive customs arrangement with the EU); (b) the EFTA
Pillar of the EEA; (c) have protocols relating to frictionless agri-food
trade across the UK/EU border; (d) a comprehensive customs arrangement
including a common external tariff
This motion also seeks to impose on the government a legally binding
negotiating mandate
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Chatham House 20 March - In search of a national compromise: Common Market 2.0
Explainer - The Conversation 27 March |
Rejected
261 to 282 votes - majority 21 - total votes 543. |
E
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Confirmatory Public Vote - That this House will not allow in this
Parliament the implementation and ratification of any withdrawal agreement
and any framework for the future relationship unless and until they have been
approved by the people of the United Kingdom in a confirmatory public vote.
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Rejected
280 to 292 votes - majority 12 - total votes 572. |
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F
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Public Vote to Prevent a No Deal Brexit - That this House considers
that it would be appropriate to commit to the holding of a public vote if it
were necessary to prevent the United Kingdom leaving the European Union
without a deal.
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Not selected by the Speaker
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G
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Parliamentary Sovereignty – also a lengthy proposal which, if
adopted, could lead to the House either accepting a no deal exit or requiring
revocation.
If it is revocation then an inquiry into the question whether a model of a
future relationship with the European Union likely to be acceptable to the
European Union is likely to have majority support in the United Kingdom. That could, in turn, could lead to a
further EU referendum.
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Rejected 191 to 292 votes - majority 101 - total votes 393.
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H
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EFTA and EEA - calls on the Government to
(a) assert the UK’s existing rights and obligations as a signatory to
the EEA Treaty
(b) indicate to the EU before 12 April that the UK intends to rejoin
the European Free Trade Association
(c) agree with the EU a further short extension to the UK’s
membership of the EU during which accession to the EFTA pillar can be
concluded and
(d) negotiate with the EU additional protocols relating to the
Northern Ireland border and agri-food trade.
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Not selected by the Speaker
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Additonal Notes and Links:
Customs Union
A trade agreement under which two or more countries do not
put tariffs (taxes) on goods coming in from other countries in the union. The
countries also decide to set the same tariff on goods entering from outside the
union. The EU customs union includes EU member states and some small non-EU
members and forbids members from negotiating trade agreements separately from
the EU. Instead trade agreements are negotiated collectively.
Single Market
A system that enables goods, services, people and capital
(money) to move between all 28 EU member states, as well as Iceland, Norway,
Liechtenstein and Switzerland. Countries in the single market apply many common
rules and standards. A UK company can sell its product (goods) in Portugal as
easily as it can in Portsmouth, bring back the cash (capital), offer
maintenance (services) and despatch a repair team (people).
EFTA
An organisation made up of four countries: Iceland,
Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. They are allowed to trade freely with
the single market in return for accepting its rules. They're not in the EU
customs union and can negotiate trade deals with third-party countries such as
China.
EFTA
EFTA
EEA
An area covering the 28 European Union countries plus
Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein, which enables those three countries to be part
of the EU's single market. They abide by the rules of the EU single market and
its freedom of movement of people, goods, services and money. But Norway,
Liechtenstein and Iceland are not part of the EU's Common Agricultural or
Fisheries policies and they do not have a common foreign and security policy.
WTO
If countries don't have free-trade agreements, they usually
trade with each other under rules set by the World Trade Organization. Each
country sets tariffs - or taxes - on goods entering. For example, cars passing
from non-EU countries to the EU are charged at 10% of their value. But tariffs
on some agricultural products are much higher - dairy averages more than 35%.
If the UK chooses to put no tariffs on goods from the EU, it must also have no
tariffs on goods from every WTO member.
Common Market 2.0
http://www.stephenkinnock.co.uk/common_market_2_0
In a Nutshell:
and on Twitter see this Explainer thread by Christopher James.
In a Nutshell:
Professor K A Armstrong –
Professor of European law and Fellow of Sidney Sussex College, University of Cambridge - Twitter - 31 March 2019.
A Single Market entails
the four freedoms including services but also movement of workers as a legal
right. Restrictions on free movement are restrictions on a fundamental freedom
and so very narrowly defined.
Membership of EFTA and access to
the Single Market via EEA Agreement would not include a customs union. It would
allow greater autonomy for an independent trade policy but then entail rules of
origin and frontier checks as goods move into the EU customs union.
A No Deal Brexit would lead to
trade on WTO terms and imposition of tariffs. Precisely because this is
unattractive we get the large number of free trade agreement between major
economies. As a result even WTO members don’t trade on default rules of WTO but
based on agreements.
Combining a customs union
and a Single Market would avoid hard border in Ireland. It would be the best
economic option for U.K. . But it’s what U.K. already has as a Member State. If
it’s what we want, why leave?
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